Modelling and predicting stock returns: Empirical evidence from Vietnam
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze properties of the VN-Index's daily closing price data series from January 3, 2001 to March 13, 2020 by using the estimation method of time series model. The analysis and testing results show that shocks cause a persistent effect , leading to stationariness and long -term memory of this time series ; and the ARFIMA (1,0.2,4)-FIGARCH (1,0.16,1) model was chosen to predict returns of above data series.